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Port 80 logoFrameworks for the Future:

Radio Frequency
Identification (RFID) Tames the Bullwhip

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M2M magazine

Coverage of the machine-to-machine communication market, helping companies learn how to reduce costs and automate processes by networking their assets. The strength of M2M is connecting people, devices, and systems.

M2M technology is being heralded by many of the world’s most influential enterprises and technology providers, and is expected to generate billions in revenue and cost savings by the end of the decade. The term M2M represents a number of different types of communication: machine-to-machine, machine-to-man, man-to-machine, machine-to-mobile, and mobile-to-machine; it involves the process of giving machines, devices, and appliances the ability to share information with backoffice information systems and the people who use them.

M2M Expo and Conference

RFID Tag Market to Swell Tenfold by 2009
by Rob McGann
ClickZ, January 18, 2005

The worldwide RFID (define) tag market will grow nearly tenfold from $300 million in 2004 to $2.8 billion in 2009, according to an In-Stat report.

RFID Chips Are Here
by Scott Granneman
Security Focus, June 26, 2003

RFID chips are being embedded in everything from jeans to paper money, and your privacy is at stake.

What Is RFID?

What RFID chips look like

Small durable increasingly inexpensive computer chips, each with an antenna. Used in an electronic product code (EPC) system, they will replace bar codes. Used with IP numbers, they will be embedded in almost every object in our environments enabling an Always-On World we can barely imagine.

EPCglobal

RFID University

uses

help traffic flow at concession stands
open up a car while car key is in pocket
track patients and medical devices such as defibrillators
newborn baby's umbilical cord has round plastic tag
link an online advertising campaign for say a new low carb soda to actual sales
tag pets in case they run away
tag child
tag car and other valuables
toll-booth EZPass systems
casino chips
card keys for entering an office after hours

who makes them?

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Technology Stocks Directory

how will such a system work?

Sensor chips (monitoring human hearts, monitoring moisture for golf courses, monitoring motion at our borders)or RFID chips (identifying what it's attached to) pump the data.

WiFi or cellular networks transfer the data over the Internet.

A server runs applications for this wireless network, using data from sensor or RFID chips.

Software provides the service and user interface.

Machines talking to machines, always on everywhere.

Put a Chip in It!
by David H. Freedman
Inc. Magazine, April 2005

Thanks to new technology, nearly anything can be "smart." Are you smart enough to keep up? ...

Someday, anthropologists will cluck over the fact that even into the early 21st century Americans had to wave at waiters and bartenders if they wanted a refill on their beer. That's because a research laboratory run by Mitsubishi has developed the world's first "smart" beer mug. It's equipped with a dishwasher-safe microchip in the bottom that senses when the glass is down to dregs and sends a distress signal to the barkeep.

Taming the Bullwhip

The Problem

The Bullwhip Effect
QuickMBA

An unmanaged supply chain is not inherently stable. Demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain away from the retail customer, and small changes in consumer demand can result in large variations in orders placed upstream. Eventually, the network can oscillate in very large swings as each organization in the supply chain seeks to solve the problem from its own perspective. This phenomenom is known as the bullwhip effect and has been observed across most industries, resulting in increased cost and poorer service.

Taming the Bullwhip Effect
by Ram Reddy
Intelligent Enterprise, June 13, 2001

On average, a firm loses anywhere between 9 and 20 percent of its value over a six-month period due to supply chain problems. ...

Some firms I worked with faced part shortages, excessive finished goods inventories, underutilized plant capacity, and runaway transportation and warehousing costs despite successful installation of best-in-class supply chain management (SCM) systems. A major cause of these problems was the "whiplash" or "bullwhip" effect in supply chains. The bullwhip effect occurs when information about the demand for a product gets distorted as it passes from one firm to the next across the supply chain.

One factor responsible for the bullwhip effect is the traditional commission or incentive structure for sales and marketing personnel. In most firms sales and marketing departments rule, so efforts to change traditional sales commission practices to support SCM objectives have mostly been futile. Touting benefits from reduced shipping costs or effective plant utilization doesn't have the same pizzazz with executives and the financial community as a 15 percent increase in sales. Finally, a measure of SCM failure can make the case for removing a major cause of the bullwhip effect - sales incentive practices.

A Solution

An Always-On Everywhere world, aka the Evernet:

bits and atoms are merged
the Internet extends into everyday objects
everything is connected
physical objects communicate in real time all the time

Atoms matter:

you eat them
you are made of atoms ... and will be for the foreseeable future
exchange of atoms ("trade") is the root of all commerce, until recently

The traditional supply chain is a network of atoms:

complex bi-directional material and printed information flows
integration of all the stages gets the right items to the right customer at the right
time, place and price

Raw Materials

atoms

Manufacturing

atoms

Distribution

atoms

Retail

atoms

Consumer

atoms

Disposal/Reuse

The Internet is a network of bits.

Computer

bits

Computer

E-commerce links the networks.

Raw Materials

atoms

Manufacturing

atoms

Distribution

atoms

 

 

Retail

atoms

Consumer

Compute

bits

Compute


atoms

Disposal/Reuse

 

RFID and EPC will merge them, aka e-business.

Raw Materials

atomsbits

Manufacturing

atomsbits

Distribution

atomsbits

Retail

atomsbits

Consumer

atomsbits

Disposal/Reuse

overall picture - Auto ID Center's How the EPC Network Will Automate the Supply Chain (500K .pdf)

To merge bits and atoms, we need ...

a single system for the whole supply chain

The need for standards rises with network complexity. We will need as many as 10^16 objects. The current IPv4 (ex: Ricci Street's IP number of 208.234.16.68) yields 256^4 or only 4.3 billion unique IP numbers. Not even close.

However, IPv6 will solve that particular problem.

IPv6 cuts address chaos
by Brooks Talley
Infoworld, August 24, 1998

Uniquely identifying items

EPC – Electronic Product Code

A product numbering standard under development by the Uniform Code Council (UCC) to identify items using radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The 96-bit EPC code links to an online database to share product-specific information along the supply chain. It assigns a unique identifier for every object and is designed to be scaleable and extensible.

Decouple identity from data

Store only the EPC on an item. Store additional information in a database that can be accessed using the EPC as a key.

Global, open standard

Group completes new RFID technology standards
by Scarlet Pruitt
IDG News Service, June 14, 2004

Radio frequency identification (RFID) standards group EPCglobal Inc. said Monday that it has finalized its first global standards, promising to help speed companies' adoption of RFID technologies to improve supply chain operations.

The electronic product code (EPC) technologies standards define the types of tags to be used and the frequencies the tags work at, as well as the tag read rates.

Detecting the presence and identity of items

RFID tags & readers

Representing item characteristics and movements

PML – Physical Markup Language
ONS – Object Name Service

Passing the information across the network

Interpreting and acting on the information

smart scalable networking for the physical world

At every point in the e-business diagram above, information is added to this chip as value is added to the raw materials.

 source: MIT's Auto-id Center
(now EPCglobal)

computers that can make decisions on their own

in:
ID data from chips
telemetry
historical data
other data

out:
decisions
inference
predictions

What can you do with this technology?

Supply chain benefits

– Reduce out of stocks, reduce inventory, speed delivery, check freshness, track and trace, produce to demand, identify sources of diversion, identify counterfeiting, theft prediction, faster recalls

Consumer benefits

– Direct order from home, smart appliances, (e.g. microwave, washing machine, refrigerator), smart healthcare, assisted living

New and less expected benefits

– Customized products, smart recycling, checkout-less stores

Theft Prediction

Will inventory shrinkage rise or fall? Or just get more sophisticated?

Bullwhip effect in real life

 

source: H. Lee, P. Padmanabhan, and S. Whang
– The bullwhip effect in supply chains, Sloan Management Review 38
(1997), 93-102.

bull-whip in the beer game

 



beer game with auto-id technology

 

Learn more

Behind the RFID Standards Brawl
by Erika Morphy
NewsFactor Network, August 20, 2004

"One thing I have been telling clients is, don't bang their heads against wall to figure out the technology piece of this. The technology is almost secondary -- it will iron itself out," AMR Research senior analyst Kara Romanov tells NewsFactor.

The point is to keep an eye on the end goal, she says. For manufacturers, that would be a system that provides a real-time demand signal -- which could deliver huge savings in inventory and supply-chain costs.

Instead of thinking about the short-term issues, companies have to concentrate on getting their back-end infrastructure and processes ready for the huge data dump that RFID will deliver.

"If manufacturers and retailers can get accurate and real-time demand data, rather than estimates of what has been sold, that would represent a sea change in demand forecasting," Romanov says. "The holy grail for [consumer packaged goods] manufacturers is real-time, clean and accurate demand data."

The Supply Chain's RFID Gambit
by Jim Rendon
MBusiness Daily

Using embedding chips in every product, an MIT project could transform retail supply channels.

It's Gary Calveley's job to get products like Dove soap and Ponds cold cream from the factory floor to store shelves as quickly and efficiently as possible. Today that process is a mess, says Calveley, the European logistics director for Unilever's personal care products division. Even with databases and the bar-coded Universal Product Code (UPC) to identify product types, the thousands of shipping companies, distributors, and retailers handling his products lack accurate information about the location of products. As a result, Unilever produces far more merchandise than it needs at any given time -- so much so that the company has set a goal of reducing its inventory by 60%.

The Electronic Product Code: RFID Reality
by Ted Fichuk
ACNielsen's Consumer Insight magazine

So what should the industry do now? Plan. Prepare. The change is coming, and it will be inevitable. Manufacturers and retailers should not be looking on from the sidelines anymore. There should be a dedicated person or team within your organization looking at this full-time.

DoD Announces Radio Frequency Identification Policy
press release, October 23, 2003

The Department of Defense announced today the establishment of a Radio Frequency Identification Policy (RFID). RFID technology greatly improves the management of inventory by providing hands-off processing. The equipment quickly accounts for and identifies massive inventories, enhancing the processing of materiel transactions to allow DoD to realign resources and streamline business processes. ...

All items shall be tagged, except sand, gravel and liquids.

RFID Journal Cases:

     ExxonMobile SpeedPass

     Prada

     Marks and Spencer

     Ford

Savi Aviation Security

Mountain View Systems

Companies rack up billions each year in lost revenue because they cannot track the movement of their assets. In other words, what is it?… where is it?… where has it been?… who is using it?… how long have they been using it?…, etc. These data can be automatically acquired from any object that has an RFID tag attached or built into it. RFID tags provide much more utility, flexibility, and data than barcodes.

Motorola's Wireless BiStatix Technology Puts Visitors 'Inside' the Internet at Chicago Museum of Science Networld Exhibit
press release, March 6th, 2001

A new wireless technology from Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) that promises to change the way we identify and track the flow of products, packages and people will be featured at the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry's Networld. Each year, millions of visitors will learn about the Internet and gain first-hand experience using BiStatixTM radio frequency identification (RFID) cards from Motorola.

Networld, which opened March 2nd, puts guests "inside" the Internet using a virtual animated sidekick called an "avatar." Visitors can digitize themselves and personalize the avatar with their own likeness. Guests can purchase a NetPass card that includes a small, embedded Motorola BiStatix RFID chip that enables them to summon their personal avatar and have it join them in their exploration of Networld.

In operation, the exhibit visitor touches these wireless cards to card readers located at interactive stations throughout the exhibit. These cards are very fast and convenient to use, with nothing to swipe or insert. The reader sends energy to the BiStatix chip for power and the chip sends unique identifying information back to the reader, all using radio frequencies. The reader decodes the identity information from the chip and transmits it into the system controlling the networking exhibit, which in turn displays the NetPass cardholder's avatar at that station.

"Networld is a brilliant example of the creative use of technology, the same kind of creativity that will use Motorola's BiStatix smart labels to change our views

of supply chain management and product packaging," said Jim Osborn, corporate vice president and general manager of Motorola's Worldwide Smartcard Solutions Division. "There is a direct parallel between using BiStatix technology to manage an 'avatar' in the Networld system and the eventual application of BiStatix in systems that manage the movement of goods through a global supply chain."

eRetailReport: The Electronic Product Code -- A Technology Revolution In The Making (.pdf)

How The ePC could transform retailing ... Price Optimization via the Internet

New Chips Could Make Everyday Items 'Talk'
by Kevin Maney
eCommerce Times, April 12, 2002

Each tiny chip, or 'tag,' will store a small amount of data and will contain a minuscule antenna that lets the chip communicate with a network.

In Singapore, cars "talk" to the streets they drive on. In Tulsa, retailers test a system that lets products inform the store when they're bought. In home kitchens later this decade, frozen dinners might automatically give cooking instructions to microwaves.

The Internet revolution was about people connecting with people. The next revolution will be about things connecting with things.

getting the price down

Alien Technology

A manufacturing assembly technology called Fluidic Self Assembly (FSA™). This technology allows for the efficient placement of exceptionally large numbers of small components across a surface in a single operation. FSA™ has numerous potential uses. The Company plans to first use the technology to manufacture very low-cost RFID tags and subsequently to address other potential markets such as antennas, sensors and electronic displays.

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modified: January 25, 2005
by Douglas Anderson
http://RicciStreet.net/port80/charthouse/future/rfid.htm